OXFORD, Miss. — Since we don’t have any sort of baseline to work with, we’re all taking shots in the dark about the playoffs. Especially if Ole Miss is to have a role in that.

The bottom line question to resolve is if the Rebels’ 20-17 loss to Kentucky back in September is worse than Georgia’s 28-10 loss to Ole Miss on Saturday. It would have helped the situation if the Wildcats hadn’t closed up shop to get ready for basketball after that or LSU wasn’t blown out of Tiger Stadium by Alabama.

Ole Miss has to avoid any faceplants, too. Going on the road to Florida in a couple of weeks, then the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State won’t exactly add to their case. A loss could devastate things.

Blame it all on the Big Ten. With Oregon sitting at No. 1 and winning along with Ohio State carrying more value than an undefeated Indiana. That’s messed up everything. Those two will meet Nov. 23 and settle it on the field.

In ESPN’s latest projected CFP rankings, the Rebels are sitting at No. 13, which means they’ll need some help, which very likely could be coming. Just don’t ask me to predict from where right now. BYU is somehow still alive with a last-second field goal after some miracle flags called on Utah late Saturday night. The Hoosiers and Buckeyes play on the field.

The first CFP bracket projection with the 12-team playoff era has dropped 🏈 pic.twitter.com/HXK3syhbEE

— ESPN (@espn) November 6, 2024

Just look at the conference teams in the 12-team playoff:

• SEC 4 (Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia). What hurts Ole Miss there is they only played one of those teams, dominating the Bulldogs on Saturday. If they actually watched the games like they say, I would find it difficult to put Georgia over the Rebels after that beatdown nobody saw coming. There probably wasn’t a sober frat boy in Oxford predicting that. If Georgia gets thumped by the Vols on Saturday that will put Ole Miss in the driver’s seat.

• Big Ten 4 (Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana). The game with Indiana and Ohio State will be huge. The Ducks’ biggest game is against Wisconsin. Penn State was whacked 38-25 in the Chik-fil-A Peach Bowl last year but that means nothing now. If the Rebels get to the playoffs, they could meet again. All four of the teams here probably won’t be there by the end of the month … I just have no idea how that’s going to shake out.

• Notre Dame (of course). The Irish haven’t really played anybody and there only wins are over Texas A&M at the beginning of the year and Louisville. Notre Dame also lost to Northern Illinois in front of Touchdown Jesus. If every team gets a blow-off game, this whole system is seriously flawed.

• Big 12 1 (BYU). The Cougars had a wild game against Utah on Saturday night they kept trying to lose and somehow pulled out a win at the end. If you saw any of the Missouri-Oklahoma game, this one was just as wild and wacky. Everything was massively disorganized from both offenses right down to the officiating. A 44-yard field goal at the end kept BYU alive. Arizona State is their toughest opponent left on the schedule.

Here's my CFP projection for this week, plus Qs for the actual selection committee tonight: https://t.co/kWArjFOnSr pic.twitter.com/f9GtCTJMai

— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) November 5, 2024

• ACC 1 (Miami). Despite the Hurricane’s loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday night, the only other option appears to be SMU and nobody is really interested in that. There is still the overblown perception of the Mustangs’ issues in the 1980’s when the NCAA allowed them to be railroaded into a two-year death penalty they have finally climbed out of. Those two will likely meet in the conference championship game and settle it on the field.

• Boise State (let the poor folks play). The Broncos aren’t a bad team, but will probably be a one-and-done representative from the Group of 5 schools.

The Rebels’ path is still clear — they just have to win two more games. We’ll be having multiple conversations at that point. Beating Georgia on Saturday in that manner, though, will probably have a bigger effect than anybody wants to admit right now.

After all, nobody wants to put little ol’ Ole Miss on the same level as Georgia. Bulldog fans just need to remember 28-10 … and it wasn’t really that close.